BTC was trading at $6,245 on Bitfinex as a recent CoinDesk analysis went to press. During the last 24 hours the price of bitcoin was expected to dip below the $6,000 marks as the indications were bearish following an inverted flag breakdown. However this did not happen because as mentioned intraday BTC was oversold.
It is still too early to claim there is a bullish reversal but the probability of the price showing an inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, a bullish sign, would have been far less if the price had found acceptance below the $6,000 level.
The hourly chart shows a falling wedge pattern was created during the last four days, as there were lower highs and lower lows. However prices crossed the wedge resistance yesterday with a pick-up in volume indicating the pullback from Monday’s high of $6,820 had stopped.
The breakout from the falling wedge also confirmed the bear-to-bull trend in the price-relative strength index divergence which showed a higher low on the relative price index (RSI),
BTC will likely find acceptance above the immediate resistance of $6,270 the 50-hour moving average(MA) and trend up towards the 100-hour MA at $6,404.
While the hourly chart looks bullish, the daily chart still favors the bears. The daily chart shows both the 5-day and the 10-day MA declining. The RSI is also staying below 50 both bearish signals.
Based on the analysis CoinDesk’s view is: “BTC could attack the $6,400 mark, but further gains are ruled out for now as the descending (bearish) 5-day MA and 10-day MA are located at $6,366 and $6,500, respectively. That said, if BTC manages to close (as per UTC) today above 10-day MA, then the doors would open for a re-test of the Monday’s high of $6,820. Bearish scenario: A failure to produce a significant move higher despite the bullish price RSI divergence and the falling wedge breakout would shift risk in favor of a drop to a recent low of $5,755. The downside move will likely gather pace if BTC fails to hold above $6,080 (previous day’s high) over the weekend. ”
Bitcoin was unable to attack the $6,400 mark. UTC time it is now in the first hour of July 14th. BTC closed at $6,217 below the 10-day moving average of $6,500. However, there is no sign so far of the bearish drop predicted as low as $5,755. Indeed there is no sign of a drop even to $6,000 as the first hour saw a high of $6,267. Fifty minutes into the first hour BTC was trading at $6,246 a reasonable gain from the open. Neither the bearish or bullish scenario seem evident as yet but then the day is just beginning. The present price of BTC can be found here.